Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1–3 Górnik Polkowice

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Górnik Polkowice

6/7/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra36%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karkonosze Jelenia GóraExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.45

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.40

Górnik Polkowice

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

1.46

creates per match

1.55

1.34

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.46

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.34

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw

61%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

64%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+

17%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals

75%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals

41%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals

17%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

77%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

42%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)

49%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more

36%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

39%

Górnik Polkowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff