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Górnik Polkowice vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Górnik Polkowice27%
×Draw21%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.46
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.08

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.92
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.33

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.83
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.00

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
48%
Górnik Polkowice or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
79%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
73%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
12%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
77%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
43%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
18%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
87%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
61%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
34%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.92 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 2.33 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
27%
level
21%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
52%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Górnik Polkowice 1–4 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra beat Górnik Polkowice 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.