Kariobangi Sharks 4–0 Wazito FC: Result & Stats

Kariobangi Sharks

FT

4 – 0

Wazito FC

J. Masaba 88'

E. Kapaito 78', 62'

D. Sakari 34'

11/29/2020

FKF Premier League · Round 2Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks47%

×Draw27%

Wazito FC26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariobangi SharksExpected goals in this matchWazito FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.00

Kariobangi Sharks

1.43

Wazito FC

1.00

Kariobangi Sharks creates 43% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 76 away

1.39

creates per match

0.76

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.39

Wazito FC

0.76

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.25

Wazito FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Wazito FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw

74%

Kariobangi Sharks or Wazito FC

73%

Draw or Wazito FC

53%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

23%

Wazito FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

76%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

42%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

17%

Wazito FC 1+ goals

63%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

26%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

64%

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 145 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.39 + Wazito FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Wazito FC attack 0.76 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

47%

level

27%

Wazito FC scores more

26%

Kariobangi Sharks at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

D. Sakari

62'

E. Kapaito

78'

E. Kapaito

88'

J. Masaba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff