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Kariobangi Sharks vs GOR Mahia — Shield Cup 2022

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahiaadvanced
5/1/2025Shield CupShield Cup · Quarter-finalsDandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks18%
×Draw35%
GOR Mahia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
0.50
GOR Mahia
1.00

GOR Mahia creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
0.67
GOR Mahia
1.33

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
0.67
GOR Mahia
0.33

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–122%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
53%
Kariobangi Sharks or GOR Mahia
65%
Draw or GOR Mahia
82%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
4%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
39%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
9%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
1%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
63%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
26%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
28%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 0.67 + GOR Mahia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

GOR Mahia attack 1.33 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
18%
level
35%
GOR Mahia scores more
47%

GOR Mahia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shield Cup: Kariobangi Sharks 0–2 GOR Mahia

GOR Mahia beat Kariobangi Sharks 2-0 in Shield Cup on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.