GOR Mahia 0–0 Kariobangi Sharks: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kariobangi Sharks

4/4/2026

FKF Premier League · Round 27Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

GOR Mahia47%

×Draw28%

Kariobangi Sharks25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchKariobangi Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.87

GOR Mahia

1.30

Kariobangi Sharks

0.87

GOR Mahia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 144 away

1.58

creates per match

1.04

0.70

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

GOR Mahia

1.58

Kariobangi Sharks

1.04

allows per match

GOR Mahia

0.70

Kariobangi Sharks

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

75%

GOR Mahia or Kariobangi Sharks

72%

Draw or Kariobangi Sharks

53%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

22%

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

73%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

37%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

14%

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

58%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

22%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

65%

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.04 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

47%

level

28%

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

25%

GOR Mahia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff