Kariobangi Sharks 1–0 Bidco United: Result & Stats

Kariobangi Sharks

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bidco United

H. Aroko 85'

12/18/2025

FKF Premier League · Round 14Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks41%

×Draw31%

Bidco United28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariobangi SharksExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.84

Kariobangi Sharks

1.09

Bidco United

0.84

Kariobangi Sharks creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

1.12

creates per match

0.69

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.12

Bidco United

0.69

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.00

Bidco United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw

72%

Kariobangi Sharks or Bidco United

69%

Draw or Bidco United

59%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

17%

Bidco United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

66%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

30%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

10%

Bidco United 1+ goals

57%

Bidco United 2+ goals

21%

Bidco United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

60%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.12 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bidco United attack 0.69 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

41%

level

31%

Bidco United scores more

28%

Kariobangi Sharks at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'

H. Aroko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff