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Bidco United vs Kariobangi Sharks — FKF Premier League 2025

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
5/3/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bidco United29%
×Draw36%
Kariobangi Sharks36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
0.73
Kariobangi Sharks
0.85

Kariobangi Sharks creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.58
Kariobangi Sharks
0.63

allows per match

Bidco United
1.08
Kariobangi Sharks
0.89

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–118%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
64%
Bidco United or Kariobangi Sharks
64%
Draw or Kariobangi Sharks
71%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
9%
Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
52%
Bidco United 2+ goals
17%
Bidco United 3+ goals
4%
Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
57%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
21%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
45%
Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.58 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Kariobangi Sharks attack 0.63 + Bidco United defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bidco United scores more
29%
level
36%
Kariobangi Sharks scores more
36%

Kariobangi Sharks at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidco United vs Kariobangi Sharks

Bidco United and Kariobangi Sharks drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.