Kariobangi Sharks 0–0 Bidco United: Result & Stats

Kariobangi Sharks

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bidco United

12/17/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 14Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks40%

×Draw29%

Bidco United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariobangi SharksExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.05

Kariobangi Sharks

1.21

Bidco United

1.05

Kariobangi Sharks creates 15% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 101 away

1.38

creates per match

0.85

1.25

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.38

Bidco United

0.85

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.25

Bidco United

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw

68%

Kariobangi Sharks or Bidco United

71%

Draw or Bidco United

60%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

17%

Bidco United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

70%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

34%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

12%

Bidco United 1+ goals

65%

Bidco United 2+ goals

28%

Bidco United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

56%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

40%

level

29%

Bidco United scores more

32%

Kariobangi Sharks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff