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Kariba vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kariba
Kariba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Harare City
Harare City
4/2/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 10Nyamhunga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kariba42%
×Draw33%
Harare City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariba
1.01
Harare City
0.70

Kariba creates 44% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kariba
0.85
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

Kariba
0.60
Harare City
1.18

finishing

Kariba+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariba ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Kariba or draw
75%
Kariba or Harare City
67%
Draw or Harare City
58%

Winning margin

Kariba wins by 2+
16%
Harare City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kariba 1+ goals
64%
Kariba 2+ goals
27%
Kariba 3+ goals
8%
Harare City 1+ goals
50%
Harare City 2+ goals
16%
Harare City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kariba (draw refunded)
63%
Harare City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariba at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariba attack 0.85 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Harare City attack 0.79 + Kariba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kariba scores more
42%
level
33%
Harare City scores more
25%

Kariba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kariba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariba vs Harare City

Kariba beat Harare City 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Nyamhunga Stadium in Kariba.