Harare City 0–0 Kariba: Result & Stats

Harare City

FT

0 – 0

Kariba

7/13/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 14Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Harare City42%

×Draw32%

Kariba26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harare CityExpected goals in this matchKariba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.76

Harare City

1.07

Kariba

0.76

Harare City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 96 away

0.94

creates per match

0.61

0.91

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Harare City

0.94

Kariba

0.61

allows per match

Harare City

0.91

Kariba

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harare City+0.00on par

Kariba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harare City ↓

Kariba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Harare City or draw

74%

Harare City or Kariba

68%

Draw or Kariba

58%

Winning margin

Harare City wins by 2+

17%

Kariba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Harare City 1+ goals

66%

Harare City 2+ goals

29%

Harare City 3+ goals

9%

Kariba 1+ goals

53%

Kariba 2+ goals

18%

Kariba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Harare City (draw refunded)

62%

Kariba (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harare City at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Kariba away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.20 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harare City attack 0.94 + Kariba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kariba attack 0.61 + Harare City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Harare City scores more

42%

level

32%

Kariba scores more

26%

Harare City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff