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Kariba vs Chegutu Pirates — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kariba
Kariba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
7/20/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Nyamhunga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kariba43%
×Draw38%
Chegutu Pirates19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariba
0.86
Chegutu Pirates
0.47

Kariba creates 83% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kariba
0.85
Chegutu Pirates
0.35

allows per match

Kariba
0.60
Chegutu Pirates
0.88

finishing

Kariba+0.00on par
Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariba ↓

Chegutu Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–112%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
38%62%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Kariba or draw
81%
Kariba or Chegutu Pirates
62%
Draw or Chegutu Pirates
57%

Winning margin

Kariba wins by 2+
15%
Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kariba 1+ goals
58%
Kariba 2+ goals
21%
Kariba 3+ goals
6%
Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
37%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
8%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kariba (draw refunded)
69%
Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariba at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

Chegutu Pirates away — creates 0.35, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariba attack 0.85 + Chegutu Pirates defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.35 + Kariba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kariba scores more
43%
level
38%
Chegutu Pirates scores more
19%

Kariba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kariba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Kariba 0–0 Chegutu Pirates

Kariba and Chegutu Pirates drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Nyamhunga Stadium in Kariba.