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Chegutu Pirates vs Kariba — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kariba
Kariba
3/17/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 2Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chegutu Pirates38%
×Draw31%
Kariba31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chegutu Pirates
1.07
Kariba
0.93

Chegutu Pirates creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Chegutu Pirates
0.94
Kariba
0.61

allows per match

Chegutu Pirates
1.24
Kariba
1.20

finishing

Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par
Kariba+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chegutu Pirates ↓

Kariba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chegutu Pirates or draw
69%
Chegutu Pirates or Kariba
69%
Draw or Kariba
62%

Winning margin

Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
15%
Kariba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
66%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
29%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
9%
Kariba 1+ goals
61%
Kariba 2+ goals
24%
Kariba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
55%
Kariba (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chegutu Pirates at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Kariba away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.20 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.94 + Kariba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kariba attack 0.61 + Chegutu Pirates defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chegutu Pirates scores more
38%
level
31%
Kariba scores more
31%

Chegutu Pirates at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chegutu Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chegutu Pirates vs Kariba

Kariba beat Chegutu Pirates 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.