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Kariana Erden vs Hebar 1918 — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
CANC
00:00
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
4/25/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 28Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kariana Erden46%
×Draw26%
Hebar 191828%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.11

Kariana Erden creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Hebar 1918
1.28

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Hebar 1918
1.40

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
72%
Kariana Erden or Hebar 1918
74%
Draw or Hebar 1918
54%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
23%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
78%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
44%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
19%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
67%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
30%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
62%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hebar 1918 attack 1.28 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
46%
level
26%
Hebar 1918 scores more
28%

Kariana Erden at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kariana Erden vs Hebar 1918 — Match Preview

Kariana Erden face Hebar 1918 on April 25, 2020 in this Second League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kariana Erden host Hebar 1918 at Stadion Kariana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.