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Hebar 1918 vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
CANC
15:00
Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
5/22/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 34Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hebar 191848%
×Draw25%
Kariana Erden26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
1.58
Kariana Erden
1.10

Hebar 1918 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 32 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
1.75
Kariana Erden
1.09

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.12
Kariana Erden
1.41

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Kariana Erden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
74%
Hebar 1918 or Kariana Erden
75%
Draw or Kariana Erden
52%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
25%
Kariana Erden wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
79%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
47%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
21%
Kariana Erden 1+ goals
67%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
30%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
65%
Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 59 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 1.75 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
48%
level
25%
Kariana Erden scores more
26%

Hebar 1918 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hebar 1918 host Kariana Erden

May 22, 2021: Hebar 1918 take on Kariana Erden in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hebar 1918 host Kariana Erden at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.