Kári 2–2 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir: Result & Stats

Kári

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

Unknown 65'

M. Gunnarsson 35'

Unknown 71', 58'

7/12/2026

2. Deild · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kári43%

×Draw21%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KáriExpected goals in this matchFjardabyggd / Leiknir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.90

Kári

2.08

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

2.00

creates per match

1.60

2.19

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Kári

2.00

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

1.60

allows per match

Kári

2.19

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kári+0.00on par

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kári ↓

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Kári or draw

64%

Kári or Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

79%

Draw or Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

57%

Winning margin

Kári wins by 2+

24%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kári 1+ goals

87%

Kári 2+ goals

61%

Kári 3+ goals

34%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1+ goals

85%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 2+ goals

56%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Kári (draw refunded)

54%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kári at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kári attack 2.00 + Fjardabyggd / Leiknir defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir attack 1.60 + Kári defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kári scores more

43%

level

21%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir scores more

36%

Kári at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kári will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Gunnarsson

58'

65'

71'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff