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Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Kári — 2. Deild 2026

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kári
Kári
8/23/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 19SÚN-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir61%
×Draw18%
Kári21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.76
Kári
1.60

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir creates 72% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
3.05
Kári
1.57

allows per match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.63
Kári
2.48

finishing

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir+0.00on par
Kári+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir ↓

Kári →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir or draw
79%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir or Kári
82%
Draw or Kári
39%

Winning margin

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir wins by 2+
41%
Kári wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1+ goals
94%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 2+ goals
76%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 3+ goals
51%
Kári 1+ goals
80%
Kári 2+ goals
47%
Kári 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (draw refunded)
74%
Kári (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at home — creates 3.05, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Kári away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir attack 3.05 + Kári defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.76

Kári attack 1.57 + Fjardabyggd / Leiknir defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir scores more
61%
level
18%
Kári scores more
21%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fjardabyggd / Leiknir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Kári

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir beat Kári 2-1 in 2. Deild on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at SÚN-völlurinn in Neskaupstadur.