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Karela vs Great Olympics — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
R. Berko 90+8'
5/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Karela53%
×Draw28%
Great Olympics19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.35
Great Olympics
0.67

Karela creates 101% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 75 away

creates per match

Karela
1.41
Great Olympics
0.61

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Great Olympics
1.29

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Karela or draw
81%
Karela or Great Olympics
72%
Draw or Great Olympics
47%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
26%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
74%
Karela 2+ goals
39%
Karela 3+ goals
15%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
49%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
15%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
74%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Great Olympics defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Karela scores more
53%
level
28%
Great Olympics scores more
19%

Karela at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
90+6'
90+8'
R. Berko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karela vs Great Olympics

Karela beat Great Olympics 1-0 in Premier League on May 18, 2022.

Goals: R. Berko (90+8').

The match was played at Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium in Nzema Anyinase.