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Great Olympics vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Great Olympics
Great Olympics
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Karela
Karela
3/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Great Olympics53%
×Draw29%
Karela18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Great Olympics
1.29
Karela
0.62

Great Olympics creates 108% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 109 away

creates per match

Great Olympics
1.28
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Great Olympics
0.63
Karela
1.31

finishing

Great Olympics+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Great Olympics ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Great Olympics or draw
82%
Great Olympics or Karela
71%
Draw or Karela
47%

Winning margin

Great Olympics wins by 2+
25%
Karela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Great Olympics 1+ goals
72%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
37%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
14%
Karela 1+ goals
46%
Karela 2+ goals
13%
Karela 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Great Olympics (draw refunded)
75%
Karela (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Great Olympics at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.63 · 76 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Great Olympics attack 1.28 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Karela attack 0.61 + Great Olympics defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Great Olympics scores more
53%
level
29%
Karela scores more
18%

Great Olympics at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Great Olympics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Great Olympics vs Karela

Great Olympics and Karela drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.