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Karela vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
4/3/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Karela60%
×Draw25%
Elmina Sharks15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.59
Elmina Sharks
0.66

Karela creates 141% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 41 away

creates per match

Karela
1.43
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Karela or draw
85%
Karela or Elmina Sharks
75%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
40%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
33%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
80%
Karela 2+ goals
47%
Karela 3+ goals
21%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
48%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
14%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
80%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.73 · 111 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.43 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Karela scores more
60%
level
25%
Elmina Sharks scores more
15%

Karela at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karela vs Elmina Sharks

Karela beat Elmina Sharks 3-1 in Premier League on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium in Nzema Anyinase.