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Elmina Sharks vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
1 – 1
Karela
Karela
B. Boateng 67'
O. A. Reindolf 29'
5/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Elmina Sharks47%
×Draw29%
Karela24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.28
Karela
0.81

Elmina Sharks creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.25
Karela
0.60

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.02
Karela
1.31

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
76%
Elmina Sharks or Karela
71%
Draw or Karela
53%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
22%
Karela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
72%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
37%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
14%
Karela 1+ goals
56%
Karela 2+ goals
19%
Karela 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
67%
Karela (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Karela away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.25 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Karela attack 0.60 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
47%
level
29%
Karela scores more
24%

Elmina Sharks at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
29'
O. A. Reindolf
53'
R. Mpong← R. Mpong
67'
B. Boateng
72'
B. Eshun← B. Eshun
76'
84'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Elmina Sharks 1–1 Karela

Elmina Sharks and Karela drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 12, 2021.

Goals: O. A. Reindolf (29'), B. Boateng (67').

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.