Karela 1–1 Ashanti Gold: Result & Stats

Karela

FT

1 – 1

Ashanti Gold

U. Bashiru 90+4'

K. S. Osei 38'

4/4/2021

Premier League · Round 18Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Karela51%

×Draw28%

Ashanti Gold21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarelaExpected goals in this matchAshanti Gold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.79

Karela

1.39

Ashanti Gold

0.79

Karela creates 76% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 45 away

1.42

creates per match

0.84

0.74

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Karela

1.42

Ashanti Gold

0.84

allows per match

Karela

0.74

Ashanti Gold

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karela+0.00on par

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Ashanti Gold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Karela or draw

79%

Karela or Ashanti Gold

72%

Draw or Ashanti Gold

49%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+

25%

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals

75%

Karela 2+ goals

40%

Karela 3+ goals

16%

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

55%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

19%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)

71%

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 110 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.42 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ashanti Gold attack 0.84 + Karela defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Karela scores more

51%

level

28%

Ashanti Gold scores more

21%

Karela at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

K. S. Osei

47'

R. Osei

60'

S. Nyarko← S. Nyarko

90+4'

U. Bashiru

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff