Ashanti Gold 1–1 Karela: Result & Stats

Ashanti Gold

FT

1 – 1

Karela

I. Opoku 39' (pen)

H. Dafie 35'

11/6/2021

Premier League · Round 2Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ashanti Gold60%

×Draw25%

Karela14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ashanti GoldExpected goals in this matchKarela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.59

Ashanti Gold

1.54

Karela

0.59

Ashanti Gold creates 161% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 109 away

1.78

creates per match

0.61

0.58

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ashanti Gold

1.78

Karela

0.61

allows per match

Ashanti Gold

0.58

Karela

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Karela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw

86%

Ashanti Gold or Karela

75%

Draw or Karela

40%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

32%

Karela wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

79%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

45%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

20%

Karela 1+ goals

45%

Karela 2+ goals

12%

Karela 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

81%

Karela (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.78 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Karela attack 0.61 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more

60%

level

25%

Karela scores more

14%

Ashanti Gold at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

H. Dafie

39'

I. OpokuPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff