Kardemir Karabukspor 1–1 İstanbulspor

Kardemir Karabukspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

İstanbulspor

12/8/2018

1. Lig · Round 15Dr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kardemir Karabukspor15%

×Draw21%

İstanbulspor64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kardemir KarabuksporExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.96

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.83

İstanbulspor

1.96

İstanbulspor creates 136% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

0.41

creates per match

1.39

2.53

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.41

İstanbulspor

1.39

allows per match

Kardemir Karabukspor

2.53

İstanbulspor

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kardemir Karabukspor ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kardemir Karabukspor or draw

36%

Kardemir Karabukspor or İstanbulspor

79%

Draw or İstanbulspor

85%

Winning margin

Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+

5%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals

56%

Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals

20%

Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals

5%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

86%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

58%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)

19%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kardemir Karabukspor at home — creates 0.41, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.41 + İstanbulspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.83

İstanbulspor attack 1.39 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kardemir Karabukspor scores more

15%

level

21%

İstanbulspor scores more

64%

İstanbulspor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Kardemir Karabukspor 1–1 İstanbulspor

Kardemir Karabukspor and İstanbulspor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Dr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadı in Karabük.

Kardemir Karabukspor vs İstanbulspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

1. Lig: Kardemir Karabukspor 1–1 İstanbulspor