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İstanbulspor vs Kardemir Karabukspor — 1. Lig 2018

İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kardemir Karabukspor
Kardemir Karabukspor
5/4/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 32Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

İstanbulspor82%
×Draw12%
Kardemir Karabukspor6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İstanbulspor
2.89
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.67

İstanbulspor creates 331% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

İstanbulspor
1.72
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.18

allows per match

İstanbulspor
1.17
Kardemir Karabukspor
4.06

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par
Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw
94%
İstanbulspor or Kardemir Karabukspor
88%
Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor
18%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+
62%
Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals
94%
İstanbulspor 2+ goals
78%
İstanbulspor 3+ goals
54%
Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals
49%
Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals
15%
Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)
93%
Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.72 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.89

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + İstanbulspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

İstanbulspor scores more
82%
level
12%
Kardemir Karabukspor scores more
6%

İstanbulspor at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Kardemir Karabukspor

İstanbulspor beat Kardemir Karabukspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.