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Kardemir Karabukspor vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

Kardemir Karabukspor
Kardemir Karabukspor
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
5/18/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 34Dr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kardemir Karabukspor10%
×Draw17%
Gaziantep FK73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kardemir Karabukspor
0.67
Gaziantep FK
2.26

Gaziantep FK creates 237% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kardemir Karabukspor
0.41
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

Kardemir Karabukspor
2.53
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kardemir Karabukspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–214%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kardemir Karabukspor or draw
27%
Kardemir Karabukspor or Gaziantep FK
83%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
90%

Winning margin

Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+
2%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals
49%
Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals
15%
Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals
3%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
89%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
66%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)
12%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kardemir Karabukspor at home — creates 0.41, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.41 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.67

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kardemir Karabukspor scores more
10%
level
17%
Gaziantep FK scores more
73%

Gaziantep FK at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kardemir Karabukspor vs Gaziantep FK

Gaziantep FK beat Kardemir Karabukspor 6-1 in 1. Lig on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Dr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadı in Karabük.