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Gaziantep FK vs Kardemir Karabukspor — 1. Lig 2018

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Kardemir Karabukspor
Kardemir Karabukspor
12/22/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 17Gaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gaziantep FK84%
×Draw11%
Kardemir Karabukspor4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
2.81
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.51

Gaziantep FK creates 451% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
1.56
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.18

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
0.83
Kardemir Karabukspor
4.06

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par
Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
96%
Gaziantep FK or Kardemir Karabukspor
89%
Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor
16%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
64%
Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
94%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
76%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
52%
Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals
40%
Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals
9%
Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
95%
Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.56 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.81

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
84%
level
11%
Kardemir Karabukspor scores more
4%

Gaziantep FK at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaziantep FK vs Kardemir Karabukspor

Gaziantep FK beat Kardemir Karabukspor 6-1 in 1. Lig on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Gaziantep.