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Kardemir Karabukspor vs Afjet Afyonspor — 1. Lig 2018

Kardemir Karabukspor
Kardemir Karabukspor
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
3/9/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 25Dr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kardemir Karabukspor19%
×Draw23%
Afjet Afyonspor58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kardemir Karabukspor
0.94
Afjet Afyonspor
1.82

Afjet Afyonspor creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kardemir Karabukspor
0.41
Afjet Afyonspor
1.12

allows per match

Kardemir Karabukspor
2.53
Afjet Afyonspor
1.47

finishing

Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par
Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kardemir Karabukspor ↓

Afjet Afyonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kardemir Karabukspor or draw
42%
Kardemir Karabukspor or Afjet Afyonspor
77%
Draw or Afjet Afyonspor
81%

Winning margin

Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+
6%
Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals
61%
Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals
24%
Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals
7%
Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
84%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
54%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)
25%
Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kardemir Karabukspor at home — creates 0.41, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

Afjet Afyonspor away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.41 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.94

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kardemir Karabukspor scores more
19%
level
23%
Afjet Afyonspor scores more
58%

Afjet Afyonspor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Afjet Afyonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Kardemir Karabukspor 0–4 Afjet Afyonspor

Afjet Afyonspor beat Kardemir Karabukspor 4-0 in 1. Lig on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Dr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadı in Karabük.