Afjet Afyonspor 5–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

Afjet Afyonspor

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kardemir Karabukspor

10/6/2018

1. Lig · Round 8Zafer Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afjet Afyonspor72%

×Draw16%

Kardemir Karabukspor12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Afjet AfyonsporExpected goals in this matchKardemir Karabukspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

0.97

Afjet Afyonspor

2.59

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.97

Afjet Afyonspor creates 167% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

0.18

1.76

allows per match

4.06

creates per match

Afjet Afyonspor

1.12

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.18

allows per match

Afjet Afyonspor

1.76

Kardemir Karabukspor

4.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afjet Afyonspor ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Afjet Afyonspor or draw

88%

Afjet Afyonspor or Kardemir Karabukspor

84%

Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor

28%

Winning margin

Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+

50%

Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals

92%

Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals

73%

Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals

47%

Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals

62%

Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals

25%

Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)

86%

Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afjet Afyonspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.59

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Afjet Afyonspor scores more

72%

level

16%

Kardemir Karabukspor scores more

12%

Afjet Afyonspor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Afjet Afyonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff