Karcag SE 3–1 Diósgyőr II: Result & Stats

Karcag SE

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Diósgyőr II

8/28/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 5Ligeti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Karcag SE52%

×Draw23%

Diósgyőr II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karcag SEExpected goals in this matchDiósgyőr II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.19

Karcag SE

1.84

Diósgyőr II

1.19

Karcag SE creates 55% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 112 away

1.98

creates per match

1.30

1.08

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Karcag SE

1.98

Diósgyőr II

1.30

allows per match

Karcag SE

1.08

Diósgyőr II

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karcag SE+0.00on par

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karcag SE ↓

Diósgyőr II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Karcag SE or draw

75%

Karcag SE or Diósgyőr II

77%

Draw or Diósgyőr II

48%

Winning margin

Karcag SE wins by 2+

29%

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karcag SE 1+ goals

84%

Karcag SE 2+ goals

55%

Karcag SE 3+ goals

28%

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals

70%

Diósgyőr II 2+ goals

33%

Diósgyőr II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karcag SE (draw refunded)

68%

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karcag SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karcag SE attack 1.98 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.84

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Karcag SE defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karcag SE scores more

52%

level

23%

Diósgyőr II scores more

25%

Karcag SE at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff