Diósgyőr II 2–4 Karcag SE: Result & Stats

Diósgyőr II

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Karcag SE

5/21/2023

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 38Diósgyőri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Diósgyőr II37%

×Draw24%

Karcag SE39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Diósgyőr IIExpected goals in this matchKarcag SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.55

Diósgyőr II

1.50

Karcag SE

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

1.73

creates per match

1.41

1.69

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Diósgyőr II

1.73

Karcag SE

1.41

allows per match

Diósgyőr II

1.69

Karcag SE

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Karcag SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Karcag SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw

61%

Diósgyőr II or Karcag SE

76%

Draw or Karcag SE

63%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+

18%

Karcag SE wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals

78%

Diósgyőr II 2+ goals

44%

Diósgyőr II 3+ goals

19%

Karcag SE 1+ goals

79%

Karcag SE 2+ goals

46%

Karcag SE 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)

49%

Karcag SE (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Karcag SE away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Karcag SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Karcag SE attack 1.41 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more

37%

level

24%

Karcag SE scores more

39%

Karcag SE at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff