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Karbach vs Eintracht Trier — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Karbach
Karbach
FT
0 – 1
Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
10/26/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Kunstrasenplatz Karbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Karbach24%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Trier55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbach
1.44
Eintracht Trier
2.24

Eintracht Trier creates 56% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

creates per match

Karbach
1.79
Eintracht Trier
2.71

allows per match

Karbach
1.77
Eintracht Trier
1.09

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par
Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Eintracht Trier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Karbach or draw
45%
Karbach or Eintracht Trier
80%
Draw or Eintracht Trier
76%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+
11%
Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals
76%
Karbach 2+ goals
42%
Karbach 3+ goals
18%
Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
89%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
65%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)
31%
Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

Eintracht Trier away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.44

Eintracht Trier attack 2.71 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Karbach scores more
24%
level
20%
Eintracht Trier scores more
55%

Eintracht Trier at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Karbach 0–1 Eintracht Trier

Eintracht Trier beat Karbach 1-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Karbach in Karbach.