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Eintracht Trier vs Karbach — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
CANC
13:00
Karbach
Karbach
2/20/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Moselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eintracht Trier69%
×Draw17%
Karbach14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Trier
2.54
Karbach
1.06

Eintracht Trier creates 140% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 60 away

creates per match

Eintracht Trier
3.00
Karbach
1.58

allows per match

Eintracht Trier
0.53
Karbach
2.07

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par
Karbach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

Karbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw
86%
Eintracht Trier or Karbach
83%
Draw or Karbach
31%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
47%
Karbach wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
92%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
72%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
46%
Karbach 1+ goals
65%
Karbach 2+ goals
29%
Karbach 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
83%
Karbach (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Karbach away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 3.00 + Karbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.54

Karbach attack 1.58 + Eintracht Trier defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more
69%
level
17%
Karbach scores more
14%

Eintracht Trier at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Trier vs Karbach — Match Preview

Eintracht Trier face Karbach on February 20, 2021 in this Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eintracht Trier host Karbach at Moselstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.