Karbach 2–0 Ahrweiler BC: Result & Stats

Karbach

FT

2 – 0

Ahrweiler BC

11/26/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 18Kunstrasenplatz Karbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Karbach51%

×Draw23%

Ahrweiler BC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarbachExpected goals in this matchAhrweiler BC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.19

Karbach

1.79

Ahrweiler BC

1.19

Karbach creates 50% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 10 away

1.79

creates per match

0.60

1.77

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Karbach

1.79

Ahrweiler BC

0.60

allows per match

Karbach

1.77

Ahrweiler BC

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Ahrweiler BC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Karbach or draw

75%

Karbach or Ahrweiler BC

77%

Draw or Ahrweiler BC

49%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+

28%

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals

83%

Karbach 2+ goals

53%

Karbach 3+ goals

26%

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals

70%

Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals

33%

Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)

67%

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + Ahrweiler BC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.60 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Karbach scores more

51%

level

23%

Ahrweiler BC scores more

25%

Karbach at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff