Ahrweiler BC 1–1 Karbach: Result & Stats

Ahrweiler BC

FT

1 – 1

Karbach

9/10/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 7Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahrweiler BC36%

×Draw21%

Karbach42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ahrweiler BCExpected goals in this matchKarbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.99

Ahrweiler BC

1.83

Karbach

1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 60 away

1.60

creates per match

1.58

2.40

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC

1.60

Karbach

1.58

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC

2.40

Karbach

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Karbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Karbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw

58%

Ahrweiler BC or Karbach

79%

Draw or Karbach

64%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+

19%

Karbach wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals

84%

Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals

54%

Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals

28%

Karbach 1+ goals

86%

Karbach 2+ goals

59%

Karbach 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)

46%

Karbach (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

Karbach away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.60 + Karbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.83

Karbach attack 1.58 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more

36%

level

21%

Karbach scores more

42%

Karbach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff