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Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Diyarbekirspor — League #553 2026

Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Diyarbekirspor
Diyarbekirspor
Y. Alemdar 90+3', 45+2'
D. Cebeci 87'
G. Demirel 61'
H. Kus 8'
F. Cetin 83' (pen)
2/9/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 20Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor52%
×Draw22%
Diyarbekirspor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.90
Diyarbekirspor
1.26

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.60
Diyarbekirspor
1.40

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.13
Diyarbekirspor
2.20

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Diyarbekirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw
75%
Karaköprü Belediyespor or Diyarbekirspor
78%
Draw or Diyarbekirspor
48%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
30%
Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
85%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
56%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
29%
Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals
72%
Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals
36%
Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
67%
Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Diyarbekirspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.60 + Diyarbekirspor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Diyarbekirspor attack 1.40 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
52%
level
22%
Diyarbekirspor scores more
25%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
H. Kus↳ H. Peksen
45+2'
Y. Alemdar
61'
G. Demirel↳ H. Kus
83'
F. CetinPenalty
87'
D. Cebeci↳ H. Peksen
90+3'
Y. Alemdar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #553: Karaköprü Belediyespor 5–1 Diyarbekirspor

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Diyarbekirspor 5-1 in League #553 on February 9, 2026.

Goals: H. Kus (8'), Y. Alemdar (45+2', 90+3'), G. Demirel (61'), F. Cetin (83' pen), D. Cebeci (87').

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.