Diyarbekirspor 0–0 Karaköprü Belediyespor

Diyarbekirspor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Karaköprü Belediyespor

10/5/2025

League #553 · Group 2 - 5Diyarbakır Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Diyarbekirspor38%

×Draw26%

Karaköprü Belediyespor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiyarbekirsporExpected goals in this matchKaraköprü Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.27

Diyarbekirspor

1.33

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Diyarbekirspor

1.00

Karaköprü Belediyespor

0.93

allows per match

Diyarbekirspor

1.60

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diyarbekirspor ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Diyarbekirspor or draw

65%

Diyarbekirspor or Karaköprü Belediyespor

74%

Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor

62%

Winning margin

Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+

17%

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals

74%

Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals

38%

Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals

15%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals

72%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals

36%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)

52%

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diyarbekirspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diyarbekirspor attack 1.00 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 0.93 + Diyarbekirspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Diyarbekirspor scores more

38%

level

26%

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more

35%

Diyarbekirspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Diyarbekirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff