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Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Ağrı 1970 — League #553 2026

Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ağrı 1970
Ağrı 1970
3/28/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 27Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor41%
×Draw29%
Ağrı 197029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.20
Ağrı 1970
0.96

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.60
Ağrı 1970
0.80

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.13
Ağrı 1970
0.80

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Ağrı 1970 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw
71%
Karaköprü Belediyespor or Ağrı 1970
71%
Draw or Ağrı 1970
59%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
18%
Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
70%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
34%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
12%
Ağrı 1970 1+ goals
62%
Ağrı 1970 2+ goals
25%
Ağrı 1970 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
59%
Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Ağrı 1970 away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.60 + Ağrı 1970 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ağrı 1970 attack 0.80 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
41%
level
29%
Ağrı 1970 scores more
29%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Ağrı 1970

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Ağrı 1970 2-1 in League #553 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.