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Ağrı 1970 vs Karaköprü Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Ağrı 1970
Ağrı 1970
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Y. Guvenoglu 38'
M. Demirel 72', 22'
Y. Alemdar 19'
12/6/2025League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 12Vali Lütfü Yiğenoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ağrı 197031%
×Draw26%
Karaköprü Belediyespor43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ağrı 1970
1.21
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.47

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ağrı 1970
0.75
Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.93

allows per match

Ağrı 1970
2.00
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.67

finishing

Ağrı 1970+0.00on par
Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ağrı 1970 ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ağrı 1970 or draw
57%
Ağrı 1970 or Karaköprü Belediyespor
74%
Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor
69%

Winning margin

Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+
13%
Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ağrı 1970 1+ goals
70%
Ağrı 1970 2+ goals
34%
Ağrı 1970 3+ goals
12%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
77%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
43%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)
42%
Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ağrı 1970 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ağrı 1970 attack 0.75 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 0.93 + Ağrı 1970 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ağrı 1970 scores more
31%
level
26%
Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
43%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Y. Alemdar↳ F. Sari
22'
M. Demirel
38'
Y. Guvenoglu
72'
M. Demirel↳ C. M. Vural

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #553: Ağrı 1970 1–3 Karaköprü Belediyespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Ağrı 1970 3-1 in League #553 on December 6, 2025.

Goals: Y. Alemdar (19'), M. Demirel (22', 72'), Y. Guvenoglu (38').

The match was played at Vali Lütfü Yiğenoğlu Stadyumu in Ağrı.