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Kaposvar vs Paksi SE II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kaposvar
Kaposvar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kaposvar47%
×Draw22%
Paksi SE II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaposvar
2.00
Paksi SE II
1.63

Kaposvar creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kaposvar
1.00
Paksi SE II
2.00

allows per match

Kaposvar
1.25
Paksi SE II
3.00

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par
Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Paksi SE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw
68%
Kaposvar or Paksi SE II
78%
Draw or Paksi SE II
53%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+
26%
Paksi SE II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals
86%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
59%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
32%
Paksi SE II 1+ goals
80%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
48%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)
59%
Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.00 + Paksi SE II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Paksi SE II attack 2.00 + Kaposvar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaposvar scores more
47%
level
22%
Paksi SE II scores more
32%

Kaposvar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaposvar vs Paksi SE II

Kaposvar beat Paksi SE II 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.