Kaposvar 4–0 Paksi SE II: Result & Stats

Kaposvar

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Paksi SE II

10/27/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 13Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kaposvar52%

×Draw22%

Paksi SE II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaposvarExpected goals in this matchPaksi SE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.29

Kaposvar

1.90

Paksi SE II

1.29

Kaposvar creates 47% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

1.83

creates per match

1.36

1.23

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Kaposvar

1.83

Paksi SE II

1.36

allows per match

Kaposvar

1.23

Paksi SE II

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par

Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Paksi SE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw

74%

Kaposvar or Paksi SE II

78%

Draw or Paksi SE II

48%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+

29%

Paksi SE II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals

85%

Kaposvar 2+ goals

56%

Kaposvar 3+ goals

29%

Paksi SE II 1+ goals

72%

Paksi SE II 2+ goals

37%

Paksi SE II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)

66%

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Paksi SE II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.90

Paksi SE II attack 1.36 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kaposvar scores more

52%

level

22%

Paksi SE II scores more

26%

Kaposvar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff