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Kaposvar vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kaposvar
Kaposvar
FT
1 – 1
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
8/11/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 2Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kaposvar51%
×Draw22%
Gyirmót II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaposvar
2.00
Gyirmót II
1.42

Kaposvar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kaposvar
1.83
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

Kaposvar
1.23
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw
73%
Kaposvar or Gyirmót II
78%
Draw or Gyirmót II
49%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+
29%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals
86%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
59%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
32%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
76%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
41%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)
65%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kaposvar scores more
51%
level
22%
Gyirmót II scores more
27%

Kaposvar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaposvar vs Gyirmót II

Kaposvar and Gyirmót II drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Rákóczi Stadion in Kaposvár.