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Gyirmót II vs Kaposvar — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kaposvar
Kaposvar
3/5/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 24Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gyirmót II28%
×Draw22%
Kaposvar50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmót II
1.36
Kaposvar
1.89

Kaposvar creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 83 away

creates per match

Gyirmót II
1.71
Kaposvar
1.90

allows per match

Gyirmót II
1.87
Kaposvar
1.01

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par
Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

Kaposvar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw
50%
Gyirmót II or Kaposvar
78%
Draw or Kaposvar
72%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+
12%
Kaposvar wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals
74%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
39%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
16%
Kaposvar 1+ goals
85%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
56%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
36%
Kaposvar (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 1.71 + Kaposvar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kaposvar attack 1.90 + Gyirmót II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gyirmót II scores more
28%
level
22%
Kaposvar scores more
50%

Kaposvar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyirmót II vs Kaposvar

Kaposvar beat Gyirmót II 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.