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Kaposvar vs Csornai SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kaposvar
Kaposvar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
4/26/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 34Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaposvar62%
×Draw20%
Csornai SE18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaposvar
2.21
Csornai SE
1.11

Kaposvar creates 99% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kaposvar
1.83
Csornai SE
1.00

allows per match

Kaposvar
1.23
Csornai SE
2.58

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw
82%
Kaposvar or Csornai SE
80%
Draw or Csornai SE
38%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+
39%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals
89%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
65%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
38%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
67%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
30%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)
77%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Csornai SE defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.21

Csornai SE attack 1.00 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kaposvar scores more
62%
level
20%
Csornai SE scores more
18%

Kaposvar at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Kaposvar 2–1 Csornai SE

Kaposvar beat Csornai SE 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Rákóczi Stadion in Kaposvár.