Csornai SE 1–2 Kaposvar: Result & Stats

Csornai SE

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kaposvar

10/30/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 15Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Csornai SE22%

×Draw22%

Kaposvar56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Csornai SEExpected goals in this matchKaposvar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.90

Csornai SE

1.11

Kaposvar

1.90

Kaposvar creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 83 away

1.21

creates per match

1.90

1.89

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Csornai SE

1.21

Kaposvar

1.90

allows per match

Csornai SE

1.89

Kaposvar

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csornai SE+0.00on par

Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csornai SE ↓

Kaposvar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Csornai SE or draw

44%

Csornai SE or Kaposvar

78%

Draw or Kaposvar

78%

Winning margin

Csornai SE wins by 2+

8%

Kaposvar wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Csornai SE 1+ goals

67%

Csornai SE 2+ goals

30%

Csornai SE 3+ goals

10%

Kaposvar 1+ goals

85%

Kaposvar 2+ goals

56%

Kaposvar 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Csornai SE (draw refunded)

28%

Kaposvar (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csornai SE at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csornai SE attack 1.21 + Kaposvar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kaposvar attack 1.90 + Csornai SE defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Csornai SE scores more

22%

level

22%

Kaposvar scores more

56%

Kaposvar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff