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Kansas City W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Kansas City W
Kansas City W
Preview
22:30
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
10/3/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageCPKC Stadium
65%
Kansas City W
model favours
65%20%15%

Kansas City W have won 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kansas City W65%
×Draw20%
Bay FC W15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansas City W
2.07
Bay FC W
0.88

Kansas City W creates 135% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

creates per match

Kansas City W
2.45
Bay FC W
1.17

allows per match

Kansas City W
0.59
Bay FC W
1.69

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw
85%
Kansas City W or Bay FC W
80%
Draw or Bay FC W
35%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+
40%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals
87%
Kansas City W 2+ goals
61%
Kansas City W 3+ goals
34%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
59%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
22%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)
81%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.59 · 22 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 2.45 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.07

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + Kansas City W defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kansas City W scores more
65%
level
20%
Bay FC W scores more
15%

Kansas City W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LWLWW
W
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansas City W face Bay FC W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Kansas City W hosting Bay FC W. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kansas City W host Bay FC W at CPKC Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.