Bay FC W 0–2 Kansas City W: Result & Stats

Bay FC W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kansas City W

T. Chawinga 90'

M. Cooper 45'

9/7/2025

NWSL Women · Round 19PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bay FC W28%

×Draw28%

Kansas City W44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bay FC WExpected goals in this matchKansas City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.32

Bay FC W

1.00

Kansas City W

1.32

Kansas City W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

0.97

creates per match

1.19

1.45

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Bay FC W

0.97

Kansas City W

1.19

allows per match

Bay FC W

1.45

Kansas City W

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Kansas City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw

56%

Bay FC W or Kansas City W

72%

Draw or Kansas City W

72%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+

10%

Kansas City W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals

63%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

26%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

8%

Kansas City W 1+ goals

73%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

38%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

39%

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 0.97 + Kansas City W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + Bay FC W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bay FC W scores more

28%

level

28%

Kansas City W scores more

44%

Kansas City W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Cooper

Kansas City W · M

8.5

Match Events

17'

Madeline MoreauPenalty cancelled

40'

Raquel Rodríguez

45'

M. Cooper↳ H. Mace

46'

C. Hutton← R. Rodriguez

68'

N. Prince← M. Cooper

68'

A. Sentnor← Debinha

74'

D. Bailey← K. Lema

74'

A. Malonson← M. Moreau

74'

K. Pickett← H. Bebar

77'

Rachel Hill

86'

C. Paulson← T. Boade

86'

H. Hopkins← Bia Zaneratto

90'

G. Robinson← L. LaBonta

90'

T. Chawinga↳ N. Prince

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayKansas

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots22

0Corners7

8Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots22

1On Target10

5Off Target8

1Blocked4

4Inside Box16

3Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

454Total Passes460

353Accurate Passes365

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3