Bay FC W 0–1 Kansas City W: Result & Stats

Bay FC W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kansas City W

T. Chawinga 35'

10/13/2024

NWSL Women · Round 18PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bay FC W28%

×Draw27%

Kansas City W45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bay FC WExpected goals in this matchKansas City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.35

Bay FC W

1.00

Kansas City W

1.35

Kansas City W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

0.97

creates per match

1.25

1.45

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Bay FC W

0.97

Kansas City W

1.25

allows per match

Bay FC W

1.45

Kansas City W

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Kansas City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw

55%

Bay FC W or Kansas City W

73%

Draw or Kansas City W

72%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+

10%

Kansas City W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals

63%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

26%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

8%

Kansas City W 1+ goals

74%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

39%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

38%

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 0.97 + Kansas City W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kansas City W attack 1.25 + Bay FC W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bay FC W scores more

28%

level

27%

Kansas City W scores more

45%

Kansas City W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

K. Sharples

Kansas City W · D

8.3

Match Events

7'

Penelope HockingPenalty cancelled

34'

35'

36'

41'

43'

Hailie MaceCard reviewed

71'

V. DiBernardo← C. Hutton

72'

S. King← D. Castellanos

79'

E. Ball← M. Cooper

79'

I. Rodriguez← H. Mace

87'

C. Conti← D. Bailey

87'

B. Feist← Debinha

88'

H. Magaia← N. Prince

90+5'

Ellis Wheeler

90+3'

Vanessa DiBernardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayKansas

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots12

7Corners5

7Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots12

3On Target4

1Off Target5

3Blocked3

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

513Total Passes399

421Accurate Passes322

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1