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Kansanshi Dynamos vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019

Kansanshi Dynamos
Kansanshi Dynamos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
5/25/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kansanshi Dynamos38%
×Draw32%
Man Utd Zambia Academy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kansanshi Dynamos
1.01
Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.84

Kansanshi Dynamos creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 77 away

creates per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.94
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03

allows per match

Kansanshi Dynamos
0.66
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.08

finishing

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par
Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansanshi Dynamos ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kansanshi Dynamos or draw
71%
Kansanshi Dynamos or Man Utd Zambia Academy
68%
Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy
62%

Winning margin

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+
15%
Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals
64%
Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals
27%
Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals
8%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
57%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
21%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)
57%
Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansanshi Dynamos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.94 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more
38%
level
32%
Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
29%

Kansanshi Dynamos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kansanshi Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kansanshi Dynamos 2–0 Man Utd Zambia Academy

Kansanshi Dynamos beat Man Utd Zambia Academy 2-0 in Super League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Solwezi Stadium in Solwezi.