Kano Pillars 2–1 Heartland: Result & Stats | NPFL

Kano Pillars

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Heartland

1/21/2024

NPFL · Round 19Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Kano Pillars63%

×Draw25%

Heartland11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kano PillarsExpected goals in this matchHeartland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.48

Kano Pillars

1.53

Heartland

0.48

Kano Pillars creates 219% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 100 away

1.54

creates per match

0.53

0.44

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Kano Pillars

1.54

Heartland

0.53

allows per match

Kano Pillars

0.44

Heartland

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kano Pillars ↓

Heartland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kano Pillars or draw

89%

Kano Pillars or Heartland

75%

Draw or Heartland

37%

Winning margin

Kano Pillars wins by 2+

34%

Heartland wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kano Pillars 1+ goals

78%

Kano Pillars 2+ goals

45%

Kano Pillars 3+ goals

20%

Heartland 1+ goals

38%

Heartland 2+ goals

8%

Heartland 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Kano Pillars (draw refunded)

85%

Heartland (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kano Pillars at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.44 · 120 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kano Pillars attack 1.54 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Heartland attack 0.53 + Kano Pillars defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kano Pillars scores more

63%

level

25%

Heartland scores more

11%

Kano Pillars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kano Pillars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff