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Heartland vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
2/17/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 20Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Heartland55%
×Draw27%
Kano Pillars18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.45
Kano Pillars
0.69

Heartland creates 110% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 121 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
82%
Heartland or Kano Pillars
73%
Draw or Kano Pillars
45%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
28%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
77%
Heartland 2+ goals
42%
Heartland 3+ goals
18%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
50%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
15%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
76%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Heartland scores more
55%
level
27%
Kano Pillars scores more
18%

Heartland at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heartland vs Kano Pillars

Heartland and Kano Pillars drew 1-1 in NPFL on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.